Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report on Wednesday has options traders anticipating a significant market shift, with a potential $292 billion swing in the chipmaker’s valuation. This prediction is based on an 8.5% implied move in Nvidia’s share price, in line with its historical post-earnings fluctuations but magnified by the company’s $3.44 trillion market cap. Such a swing would eclipse the market cap of most S&P 500 companies.
Historically, Nvidia’s stock movements after earnings have often fallen short of expectations. However, when larger-than-expected moves have occurred, they’ve predominantly been upward. Of the past 12 earnings reports, five exceeded market expectations, all resulting in price surges, according to ORATS founder Matt Amberson.
Susquehanna Financial Group strategist Christopher Jacobson noted a slight market bias favoring an upside move this quarter. As Nvidia anchors the ongoing AI boom, its results could influence broader market sentiment, especially after a recent stall in the S&P 500’s rally.
Nvidia, which has consistently surpassed Wall Street revenue estimates for the past eight quarters, faces increasing scrutiny. Analysts predict third-quarter sales will soar 82.8% to $33.13 billion. Despite this, supply chain challenges and slower growth expectations could impact future performance.
Currently up 180% year-to-date, Nvidia’s stock remains a standout in the S&P 500, although it dipped 1.3% on Monday to close at $140.15. The upcoming earnings report will be a critical indicator for both Nvidia’s trajectory and the broader AI market narrative.
